Star-Spangled Shootout: Cowboys vs. Chiefs Thanksgiving Preview

The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs facing off on Thanksgiving afternoon is the kind of marquee matchup the networks dream about, and this year, the stakes are genuinely massive for both sides. It’s Patrick Mahomes vs. Dak Prescott at AT&T Stadium, and the narratives writing themselves this week are juicy. 

Dallas is fresh off a season-saving, "how did they do that" 24-21 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. That wasn't just a win; it was a statement. The defense, which has been spotty all year, finally showed up in the second half. And let’s talk about the big deadline addition—Quinnen Williams. He was a monster against Philly, wrecking the interior and making life miserable for Jalen Hurts. If he plays like that Thursday, Mahomes is going to have a long afternoon.

On the other side, you have the Chiefs, who are frankly lucky to be here at 6-5. They barely survived the Colts last week, squeezing out a 23-20 win that felt more like a loss. The offense is sputtering. Isiah Pacheco is out, which kills their run game explosiveness, and the offensive line is banged up—keep an eye on Trey Smith’s ankle status because if he can’t go, that Cowboys pass rush is going to feast. The hero for KC lately hasn't been Mahomes or Kelce; it’s been Harrison Butker. The guy literally saved the day against Indy, accounting for 15 of the Chiefs' points. When your kicker is your MVP in Week 12, you have problems.

Mahomes is Mahomes, obviously. You never bet against him comfortably. But this Chiefs team feels disjointed. They're struggling to finish drives, settling for field goals (hence the Butker masterclass), and turning the ball over in weird spots. Dallas, conversely, seems to have found a rhythm. Dak threw for over 350 yards last week and looked locked in with CeeDee Lamb. The short week usually favors the home team, and the Cowboys riding the high of beating the Eagles might just have enough momentum to knock off the defending champs.

Betting Picks & Predictions

Vegas still respects the championship pedigree, installing the Chiefs as 3 1/2-point favorites on the road. That line feels a bit sticky. Giving Dak Prescott and a surging Cowboys defense more than a field goal at home on Thanksgiving? That’s generous. The total is set at 51.5, expecting fireworks, but with KC’s red-zone struggles, the under might be the sneaky look.

Here is the reality: Kansas City isn't blowing teams out right now. They are grinding wins, often relying on special teams. Dallas has the better pass rush right now with Williams and Parsons, and their offense is clicking better than KC’s. The hook on the 3.5 is huge. I’m taking the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 easily, and I’m calling for the upset. Prediction: Dallas wins 27-24.