Raiders Vs. Colts Week 5 Wagering Predictions and Betting Picks

Raiders vs Colts – Vegas Heads to the House That Steichen Built 

The Las Vegas Raiders are shipping out to Indy for what should be an interesting AFC clash against the Indianapolis Colts that could have major Wild Card implications down the road. The Silver and Black are trying to get their season on track, and they’ve shown flashes of being a really tough out when their offense is humming.

Indianapolis has quietly been one of the NFL’s better stories. The Colts are 3‑1 and undefeated at home, averaging nearly 26 points per game and just 14 allowed. In the dome, that scoring bumps to 31, and Shane Steichen’s offense has found a sweet rhythm with a balance of quick‑hitting passes and timely runs. 

Wideout Alec Pierce (concussion protocol), corner Kenny Moore II (Achilles) and RB Tyler Goodson (groin) are question marks, but Indy’s depth has held up. Despite a road loss to the Rams, the Colts are confident and are laying about a touchdown in most books.

The Raiders limp in at 1‑2 after a one‑point loss to Chicago. Starting left tackle Kolton Miller tweaked his ankle on the final drive and his status is in doubt. Antonio Pierce’s club is scoring just under 18 per contest while conceding nearly 25; on the road those numbers slide to 22 for and 27 against. 

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell has shown flashes but needs better protection, and star runner Josh Jacobs (if healthy) must get going to keep Indy’s pass rush honest. Historical trends favor the Colts; they’ve won four of their last five overall and beat Vegas 23‑20 the last time these teams met at Lucas Oil Stadium. 

The last time these teams clashed at Lucas Oil, in December 2023, the Colts squeaked out a 23‑20 win. Indy’s current roster is sharper and healthier, so the market favors them by about six or seven with a total around 46.5. Expect the Colts to test Vegas’ secondary early with vertical shots, then pound the rock once they have a lead. 

For the Raiders to stay in it, Crosby and Malcolm Koonce must harass Penix and force mistakes, and O’Connell must find Adams early and often. Special teams could be an equalizer—Daniel Carlson has the leg to hit bombs indoors. Still, on paper, this game screams Colts control: a balanced offense, stingy defense, dome conditions and a raucous home crowd. 

Expect Indianapolis to test Vegas vertically early and then lean on Jonathan Taylor to salt it away. For the Raiders to have a puncher’s chance, they need to force turnovers and turn them into points. Otherwise, I see this one as a comfy home win for the 3-1 Colts in front of a loud indoor crowd. At -7 -105, Indy minus the points is a solid option.

That still leaves one question to be answered. Will these two be able to hit the Over 48 before time runs out? It's looking iffy right now. Each team has seen an average of 47 points on the board in their games this season, so I'm leaning toward the under but I'm laying off the total on this particular game. I'd recommend taking Indy minus the points and  the moneyline on Indy @ -300.