Kansas City Chiefs Vs. indianapolis Colts Week 12 NFL Betting Predictions, Picks and Parlays

AFC Showdown: Indy's Playoff Dream Meets a Tumbling KC Juggernaut

The Week 12 game between the Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs seems like a complete departure of what we would consider normal based on the trends that we know. Indy is playing very well with an 8-2 record and leading the AFC South. After their bye week, their probability of making the playoffs increased to 95.3%. They have been winning big and even beat the Chargers on the road right before their bye week. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are having a hard time. They're now 5-5 after losing two games in a row, the last one being a tough one in Denver after their bye. Bubble team? You bet. The narrative has completely shifted.

The Colts' offense has been humming, putting up 40+ points twice already this season, which is crazy when you look at the injuries they've had to navigate. They're just finding ways to win, which is the mark of a well-coached squad. But let's be real, the injury report is a novel; Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner is on IR with a neck issue, and let’s not forget the season-ending stuff for QB Anthony Richardson and corner Charvarius Ward. 

Still, this team finds ways. For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes isn't the problem, but their 3-7 against the spread record this year? Yikes. They need to figure out their offense outside of the big plays, and fast. Running back worries, receiver drops, it's all there. KC's defense, though, that unit has been solid, which is the only thing keeping them from a complete meltdown.

The Ultimate Money Line: Chiefs Must Win

The Chiefs are currently 3-point favorites at home, with the total hovering around 50 points, though some lines have them at 3.5. That spread is shrinking, a clear nod to the Colts' stellar record and the Chiefs' recent struggles; Indy is actually 6-3-1 against the spread this season, while KC is a terrible 3-7. It’s hard to trust the Chiefs right now, even at Arrowhead. They've been phenomenal at home, sure, covering in four of five games there, but two straight losses means they are in pure "must-win" mode. 

Vegas is clearly banking on the championship pedigree and a bounce-back. But honestly, the Colts have the momentum, they're rested, and their offense is hitting its stride. I'm taking the Colts to cover that +3.5 and maybe, just maybe, they pull off the upset. The total is interesting, though; 50 feels reachable with both these offenses. I'm going to lean slightly Under that 50-point mark, expecting a lower-scoring slugfest than people anticipate, and I'll take the Colts to win a close one, something like 24-21.