Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Denver Broncos Week 11 NFL Football Betting Predictions, Picks and Parlays

Bye Week Blues vs. Mile High Mayhem: Can Mahomes Survive the Sack Factory?

The Week 11 AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos isn't your daddy's rivalry; this one is genuinely scary, especially for Kansas City fans. The Chiefs are coming off their late-season bye, which usually means good things, but they're heading straight into the teeth of a Broncos team that is currently 8-2 and playing with an aggressive, nasty swagger. Denver is absolutely mauling people, and the game plan starts with their defensive front.

Leave aside the shiny offensive figures for a moment, but what’s really frightening in Denver is the pass rush they possess. Last week, the defensive line showed a masterclass by recording six sacks, pressuring the quarterback in nearly half of his drop backs. That is utter anarchy! The edge rushers, in this case, Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto, have been playing at an elite level, reaching the quarterback in more than two seconds in most cases.

This level of pressure is a nightmare scenario for Patrick Mahomes, whose offense has been surprisingly sputtery and mistake-prone all season long. You’d hope the bye week fixed the chemistry issues between Mahomes and his receiving corps—who’ve been dropping too many balls and running too many imprecise routes—but that's a lot to ask when you’re facing a unit that plays with this kind of venom.

The history books are giving Chiefs fans whiplash right now. On one hand, you have the ridiculous, Hall of Fame-level statistic: Andy Reid is 22-4 immediately following a regular-season bye. That's a superpower. On the other hand, Kansas City's all-time post-bye record is a miserable 19-32-1, which just feels... ominous. The truth is, that history doesn't block Zach Allen. 

Denver is also dealing with significant injury drama, mainly surrounding star running back J.K. Dobbins, who missed practice following a highly visible, obscenity-laced rant about a non-called hip-drop tackle. His status is uncertain, meaning the Broncos will need rookie RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin to carry the load against a rested KC defensive line. This game boils down to whether the fresh legs of KC's offensive line can hold up against the most dominant pass rush in football.

The Reid Superpower Narrative

Kansas City enters the game as a 3.5-point favorite and a -200 moneyline favorite. Honestly, that line feels entirely driven by the "Andy Reid is a bye-week genius" narrative and almost completely ignores the fact that Denver is 8-2 and playing arguably the best defensive football in the league. 

While Reid's record is incredible, the Chiefs are 5-4 and have looked vulnerable all year. When push comes to shove, pressure wrecks schemes. If Mahomes is constantly running for his life in the Mile High altitude, all the preparation in the world won't matter. I'm fading the coaching trend this week. Denver pulls off the upset at home.