Spida's Back, But Are the Cavs a Lock?

The Toronto Raptors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are squaring off tonight in a matchup that feels a little messy, mostly thanks to Cleveland's injury report looking like a novel. We know the Raptors, sitting at a decent 6-5, are better on the road this season, already bagging four wins away from the 6ix—that’s a huge improvement from their road struggles last year. Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes have been getting the job done, but Barnes in particular has been flashing an improved jumper, finally looking like the guy they drafted. They're healthy, which is a huge bonus at this point in the season.

However, let’s keep it real; all eyes are on the Cavaliers' star, Donovan Mitchell. He didn’t play yesterday due to rest, which is always good news. That’s an obvious sign that he’s going to play tonite, and everyone knows that Spida is going to be out there scoring 30+. The only guy that Cleveland fans should fret about is Darius Garland. He didn’t play Wednesday with his toe injury, which also underwent surgery during the summer. That's a huge red flag; missing seven games already this year, coming back for three, and then sitting again? Yikes. If Garland is out long-term, it changes everything for this team.

Even with the back-to-back, the Cavs managed to beat the Heat without Mitchell, Garland, Mobley, and Tyson—that's crazy depth. Evan Mobley, who was resting as well, is also set to return, but he’s been quietly playing at a high level, reaching the 20-point plateau in half of this year’s contests, including scoring a season-high 29 in his previous meeting against this team. Their Mobley-Allen combination is a difficult front to defend, even for Poeltl, who is a reliable big in his own right. The Raptors, of course, require Barrett and IQ to step up to keep up with what’s projected to be a huge scoring output for this team tonight.

The Money Shot

The books have the Cavaliers as the clear favorites, pegged at -7 1/2 against the spread, while the over/under is set at a spicy 237 1/2. Neither team has been reliable for bettors, with Toronto sitting at 5-6 against the spread and Cleveland struggling at a brutal 4-8 ATS—they are a poor bet, especially at home. 

Given the uncertainty around Garland and the Cavs playing the second night of a back-to-back, that 7.5 points feels like a lot to cover, even if Mitchell is back. Toronto’s road resilience means they’re usually better than expected. I’m leaning towards the total going under 237.5, simply because of the fatigue factor and Cleveland’s inconsistent offense without its full complement of stars. The Cavs win, but the Raptors keep it close, covering the spread.