Buffalo's Line Crumbling as Joe Cool Marches On

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills are set for an absolute must-win grudge match that has all the makings of a classic AFC showdown, but the injury reports tell the story of a narrative totally flipped. Forget the high-flying passing attacks we’ve seen in the past. The Bills, who just crushed the Steelers last week, are suddenly playing smash-mouth football, dropping a whopping 249 rushing yards on them. James Cook is an absolute beast right now, logging his seventh 100-yard game of the season. When he gets rolling like that, the Bills are almost unbeatable, or at least they know how to control the clock. It looks like Buffalo has finally uncovered its championship formula: bully-ball.

But, the injury situation for Buffalo's offensive line is a disaster zone. Starting left tackle Dion Dawkins is still stuck in concussion protocol, and right tackle Spencer Brown is seriously banged up—both are questionable to go. Defensive end Joey Bosa is another huge loss, likely out with a hamstring issue. This is massive because Josh Allen, who is running the ball a ton and tying for the league lead in fumbles, needs all the protection he can get. He’s already in shouting matches on the field, getting into a huge jawing match with Cam Heyward last Sunday. That kind of high-risk, high-reward play, combined with a makeshift line, is a dangerous cocktail against a desperate team.

Speaking of desperate, Joe Burrow is officially back and Cincy is treating every snap like playoff football. Burrow looked sharp in his return against the Ravens on Thanksgiving, throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions. The Bengals need him to keep that zero-turnover streak going because they are in "must-win" mode, period. They need to win out just to have a prayer. However, Cincinnati has their own huge defensive hole. Sack leader Trey Hendrickson, their top pass rusher, is officially doubtful with an injury. If Hendrickson can't suit up, that is a gift-wrapped advantage for Allen and a banged-up Buffalo front five, despite Cincy having placed LB Brian Asamoah II on the Reserve/Injured list earlier this week. It's a game of defensive attrition.

Betting Picks & Predictions

The Bills are currently sitting as $5 1/2-point favorites, and honestly, that line feels a little soft considering the injuries piling up in Orchard Park. Cincy is 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus the Bills, and the Under on the 52 1/2 total has hit in their last five matchups, which is a massive trend you can’t ignore. With both teams dealing with injuries to key pass rushers and Buffalo pivoting to a run-heavy attack, this screams low-scoring grinder. I’m hammering the Bengals to keep this thing close, maybe even steal a victory outright on the road.

If you’re looking to juice up that ticket, the parlay to beat the Commanders with the Vikings feels safe on the surface, but tread lightly. Minnesota is 3-4 ATS after a loss, which is a bad sign if you’re hoping for a cover. Prediction: I’d keep the Vikings out and just stick with the Burrow factor. Take the Bengals +5 1/2.