Bills Vs. Patriots Week 5 NFL Betting Picks and Game Preview

Bills Mafia Welcomes a Short-Handed Patriots Squad

The AFC East rivalry gets renewed this Sunday in Orchard Park, but the latest news heading into the weekend suggests this could be a lopsided affair. The biggest storyline all week in Buffalo revolved around the health of quarterback Josh Allen's character-building broken nose, which he injured in last week's game.

After being limited in practice earlier in the week, the Bills Mafia can breathe a collective sigh of relief. Allen was a full participant in Friday's practice and has been officially cleared to play with no injury designation. With their MVP candidate under center, the Bills' high-powered offense, featuring Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid, is expected to be at full strength. Coach Sean McDermott spent his press conference on Thursday emphasizing the need to clean up turnovers, a key focus after a couple of costly mistakes in their last outing.

For the Pats, the news from Friday's final injury report was grim and presents a monumental challenge for their rookie quarterback, Drake Maye. The team's most dynamic offensive weapon, wide receiver Demario Douglas, has officially been ruled out as he remains in the concussion protocol. His absence removes a critical safety blanket and big-play threat for Maye, who now must face a hostile environment and a tough Bills defense without his top target.

The more pressing concern, however, may be on defense. The Patriots' top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, who would have been tasked with shadowing Stefon Diggs, is listed as questionable after a hamstring injury limited him all week. His potential absence would create a catastrophic mismatch for a New England secondary that relies on him heavily.

In his weekly press conference, Bill Belichick called Josh Allen "a running back, a quarterback, and a tight end all in one," acknowledging the immense challenge the Bills QB presents. Facing that challenge with a rookie QB missing his best receiver, and a defense potentially missing its best cover corner, is a brutal blow for a Patriots team in the midst of a rebuild. That's why the Bills are so far out in front on the moneyline to take this game, and I don't see any reason why it would go any differently. I would back the spread, but can't see the total hitting 48 points, so I'd definitely take the under on this one.