Arizona Cardinals Vs. Texas Cowboys week 9 NFL Picks and Parlays

Zone Wars: Cardinals' D-Backs Battle Dak's Deep Shots in Dallas

There's breaking news from the desert: Expect to see Kyler Murray back under center for the Cardinals Monday Night Football tilt versus the Dallas Cowboys. However, the real story for this week’s contest, and the reason the Cardinals have been involved in a dog fight each and every week, has everything to do with their defense. They are playing a lot of soft coverage – a lot.

The Cardinals have been very visible on defense in the type of zone schemes they have used, and the numbers reflect that as the Cardinals are only exceeded by the L.A. Chargers in the type of defensive snaps employed in Cover 4 defense. This type of strategy shows the defense wants to bend but not break.

This calling play pattern can be considered quite aggressive because the aim is to restrict the opponent's ability to gain longer distances. However, playing this strategy against the passing attack ability of Prescott and the Cowboys can pose a real risk. Prescott has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the two-safety defense scheme that Cover 4 represents. He's been feasting on that split-safety coverage, boasting a completion rate and YPA against those looks that's right up there with the best in the NFL. 

So, what gives? Coach Jonathan Gannon is basically challenging Dallas to be patient, to make twelve-play drives, and try to avoid the game-breaking mistakes they've been known for. If Dallas can protect Dak, they will have all day to pick apart the zone. Arizona has to rely on their front four to get pressure, forcing errant throws or speeding up Dak's clock. They can't, and if Dak has the luxury of breaking down that Cover 4 defense sitting back in Arizona's secondary, today will be a long day. The Cardinals get a boost back from Kyler Murray, but the defense has its backs against the wall to make a play instead of just prevent one.

The Cowboys are historically strong against the Cards, going 56-34, with one tie, all-time. That's partially why the line is in their favor, at -140, and the 2.5-point spread seems right on the money. Dallas was 3-6 ATS after a loss last season, and they're going to have a tough time against Arizona.