Top Ten Tips for Winning Betting on the NFL

 

Before going into details explain a little how this world works. The first thing you should know is that it is played against the house, which puts a few lines to the games, with a fee (multiplied by your investment gives the final winnings), these are generally two:

 

· Handicap, or point difference:

 

This is a line that the houses put as a difference between two teams. As you can see in the image there are different lines, to serve as an example I will take the LSU / Florida in which it says -2 on the LSU side, this is that the bookmakers project an LSU victory by two points and if you take that bet (LSU -2), if LSU wins by more than 2 points, you would take the bet, if or only for two they would return the investment, however, if Florida won, or LSU by one point, you would lose it .

 

· Total points: This is simpler.

 

The bookmaker puts a number, for example 43. The bettor can bet that the final score (the sum of the points of both teams) ends with more, or less than 43. If it stays right at 43, the money will be returned .

 

There are many more bets. Of course, winner, player yards, etc ... These would be from each game. However, before the season begins, other types of bets are made, which are the ones that I will propose later:

 

· Total season wins:

 

As in all bets, the house puts a line, on which you can bet, that there will be more or less than as many victories for each team.

 

Now we go with the tips:

 

1. Basic rule.

 

Bet carefully and being aware of what you are doing, never with money that you will need, but taking it as an investment. It's not a game.

 

2. Bank management.

 

Always keep a simple 'Bank' management system but always respect it. Personally, the one I like the most is one with 3 "stakes" (confidence in the bet), a low stake, for most bets, where I bet 0.25% -0.5% of my bank, a medium stake, for the bet strongest of the day, for example, which would carry between 0.5% -0.75% and a high stake, for high security bets, which would carry 1% -1.25%. It would be necessary to decide in advance what percentages to set.

 

3. Limits.

 

Never put more than 15% of the bank into play simultaneously, and never bet more than 1.5% of the bank on the same bet.

 

4. With a head.

 

If you lose a bet, do not go crazy trying to recover it, this is where most fail, it is convenient to take a break if you see that things are not going well. Psychology is a key point in betting.

 

5. Choose market.

 

Although these first four points are more generic, and are valid for any sport, now we are going to go into more about Football. In football there are two major markets, the NFL and the NCAAF. The first and best known has an extra difficulty for me. It is a very controlled league, with a lot of information where the lines established by the bookmakers are nailed, that is, they do not usually have errors. At College there are over 50 games every Saturday and it's really hard for all the lines to be nickel-plated.

 

My advice here is to specialize in a couple of not very well known conferences and you will surely find a lot of interesting things throughout the season. I personally like the MWWC and the Sun Belt, which is where there are usually the most house bugs. The Big10, the SEC, in general, the Power5, are better known and the lines maybe not with the precision of the NFL, but they are better placed. In the end, it is better to control a lot of 2 conferences.

 

6. Lines.

 

On Tuesdays the Handicap and Totals lines of the Football matches for the weekend are usually available. Print a sheet with the matches and hide the lines. Try to generate your own lines. For example, we continue with the LSU / Florida of the image, without knowing the line, let's imagine that it puts LSU -7, it is a difference of 5 points with respect to the house, perhaps you should select that bet, or move it to a different list. Once all the matches have been examined, go to that list and from there check what is the best and pass it on to our bets of the week.

 

7. Bet on value.

 

This is another key, when we bet it has to be because the line we are taking has value, that is, if we are taking a line -2 at odds 1.90 and we think it should be -7, 5 points higher it is because we believe that it has value, that the house is making a mistake. Another way of looking at it is by imagining a game, for example, Oregon-Colorado, where Colorado's odds of winning the game, let's say, is 20. If we believe Colorado would win that game more than 5% of the time, it has value. This in the long term is what gives us profitability.

 

8. "Odds-Flow".

 

It is very important, just as in the stock market it is to look at the indices, here it is to look at the lines and the quotas. If we see that a line of -7 goes to -14, we must know why before betting. Once you know of

 

9. Injuries / Penalties.

 

It is essential to be aware of the injuries and penalties of the players, when they return, in what state are they, if they are going to play, will they be touched? There are many pages that offer this information for free. You should have a couple in favorites.

 

10. News / Forums.

 

Like the previous point, it is important to be aware of news from the teams we follow and from American forums. During training camp it is very interesting to read in forums about people who are going to see them, what opinion they have, especially in College, that there is less information of this type.

 

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